July 21, 2010
Demographic Winter –
(Part II of two parts)
By Mike McManus
A haunting DVD,
“Demographic Winter,” states: “When there are many too many old people and
not enough young people, which is on the books, now, mathematically
speaking… there will be an economic collapse.”
Japan. For years, it seemed to be booming. In 1989 only 11.6 percent of its
population was over age 65. Less than 20 years later that figure doubled to
21.1 percent. Why? Japan’s birth rate is an extremely low 1.25 births per
woman, while 2.1 births are necessary for the population to replace itself.
Japan’s stock market plunged 80 percent in the 1990s and real estate lost 60
percent of its value. No one mentions Japan Inc. anymore.
industrialized world will soon face severe labor shortages. The European
Union estimates a shortfall of 20
million workers by 2030,” according to Don Feder of the World Congress of
Families. That’s why Europe is accepting so many Muslim immigrants.
Winter” even predicts, “It’s possible that the French will disappear. There
will be no native born French population.”
demographic winter of western society is happening in rich countries, poor
countries, Catholic countries, Islamic countries,” the DVD asserts. “No one
wants to have children and no one wants to get married.”
overstatements. The French fertility rate is 2.0, but immigrants, who are
only a tenth of the population, produce a disproportionate number of those
in less than 40 years, world fertility rates have fallen by 50 percent.
“Europe might as well hang a `Going Out of Business’ sign on its door, ”
states “Demographic Winter.” The average birth rate for the European Union
is 1.5 births per woman, well below replacement. In Italy it’s 1.2.
has a similar rate, where many elementary schools have closed. Of the 9,123
new teachers graduating from college, only 270 could find jobs. Government
just increased the age of retirement by five years.
Though the U.S.
fertility rate is now 2.06 (thanks to Hispanic immigration), the 76 million
baby boomers gave birth to only 49 million kids, and wonder why there are no
customers for their big houses, so they can retire. Housing sales are down a
fifth this year.
What are the
answers to Demographic Winter?
“There is only
one solution. It is for people to love children,” says Wendy Wright,
President of Concerned Women for America. “The ultimate problem is that
people are rejecting children. They are more focused on their own lifestyle,
their own comfort.”
that having children requires sacrifice, but produces “tremendous joy and
social stability. If we want a society built on Judeo-Christian principles,
we need to have a generation that comes after us.”
making a choice to not have children. They are looking at short-term
benefits, of having an easier lifestyle and more money to spend. They are
not looking ahead to when they are older, and will then wonder who will take
care of them.
of the New America Foundation suggested another answer inadvertently in a
USA Today column where he pointed out one difference between Seattle and
Salt Lake City:
there are nearly 45 percent more dogs than children. In Salt Lake City,
there are nearly 19 percent more children than dogs.” Why?
“It’s not that
people in a progressive city such as Seattle are so much fonder of dogs than
are people in a conservative city such as Salt Lake City. It’s that
progressives are so much less likely to have children. It’s a pattern found
throughout the world.”
He notes that in
America, 47 percent of people who attend church weekly say their ideal
family size is three or more children, while only 27 percent of seldom
church attenders want that many kids.
In Utah where
two-thirds are Mormons, 92 children are born each year for every 1,000
women, America’s highest fertility rate. “By contrast, Vermont – first to
embrace gay unions – has the nation’s lowest rate, producing 51 children per
For the past two
months, my wife and I have been blessed, having our youngest son, his wife
and three children live with us as he moved to the area to accept a new
job. They will soon move to a new house they have bought.
They have brought
home to us the wisdom of Scripture: “Be fruitful and multiply” (Gen.1:28).
17:6: “Children’s children are a crown to the aged.”